In the last 10 years, there has been hue and cry both in domestic and global echelon about the maverick and miraculous economic and infrastructural rise of India like the parabolic Phoenix from the ashes, as if, and this ruckus has had some substance particularly in the perspective of GDP, exports, stock market, start-ups and infrastructural niches which the nation never witnessed in the previous post of 1947.
Not only these, the nation’s global manufacturing hub high ambition still looks high flying like the constant top global position in economic and GDP growth rate at a streak of 7 consecutive years. These frolic growth momentum is most remarkably and optimistic manner veering fast from a highly service-based dependent economy to a manufacturing powerhouse like China through the identical path of electronics, semiconductors and other digital forays.
As a result, in spite of global financial troubles, slow GDP growth, shrinking businesses and the rising tailwind of globalization spirit by rising protectionist trends particularly among the advanced economy with the USA in forefront, the flag bearer of globalization through highly conservative import and immigration policies in recent years. Amid these financial quagmires, India, like a dark horse in the most adverse turf, appears to be running high.
One thing is well established that Indian economy and domestic infrastructures are in the most advanced matured stage. Beneath these robust and substantial scenarios, some dissenting feeble voices are heard regularly spurring the well-managed media and official monolithic posture of curtained Eden in heaven are continuously raising fingers towards many substantial realities which most ironically were not even in the most dejected financial age of colonial occupation.
These dissenters are bringing out the aghast picture of meaningful job creation, per capita income, runaway import bills from China, high dependence on NRI remittances and USA export market, gasping domestic household debts, crumbling state governments’ finances and epic debt burden, worst state of domestic currency valuation and lengthening fly-by-night of riches from financial Eden for better pastures — in large numbers, first time in the nation’s 2000-year history.
Now, with the passage of months, one most potent and substantial doubt is skyrocketing in the hearts of few sensible souls — has India really moved an inch in the last ten years, in actual, both economically and socially, true to the high-tuned faithful media and the Goebelian heroics of the present dispensation?
The reason for doubt is most convincing, as despite the burgeoning number of skyscrapers, meteoric infrastructures, relentless exhibitions, digital and manufacturing panorama, leaps and bounds number of premier new educational institutions, airports, metros, trains, shopping malls, class hotels — they are cutting a very sorry picture against well-paid job creation rate, globally lowest per capita income, domestic and government runaway borrowings, NPAs, gasping household savings, spate of immigration of riches unheard in world history save Somalia, beelining fortune seekers in overseas pasture lands, and 100 crore people hand-to-mouth state thriving on government doles.
Like the taste of a pudding in its eating, domestic household purchasing power is the only acceptable compass of economic growth in world economic age-old fixed standard and obviously, purchasing power of Indian households had remarkably grown in the last ten years in particular — but they purchased the debts, EMIs and micro loans, not the services or goods in substance for better living and for survival.
The frantic move of the present dispensation to cut the GST rate and lower income tax exemption is more than sufficient proof of highly subdued domestic consumption trend getting from bad to worse. No medicine is working at all.
But at the same breath, it is undeniable fact that Indians are forerunners in Swiss banks customers line, in number of rising billionaires, purchasing of costly foreign or domestic degrees and premium goods and properties. Because precious apple of Eden is affordable to just 5% Indians for co-sharing, thus leaving the others to live on parables of the rulers and debts.
Indian economy survived in the last 35 years just on high purchasing power of the USA and some European nations who consumed from shrimps to software in billions. Now they are in beggar description for their abnormal purchasing spree and in such a scenario, only domestic consumption is the sole savior — but most domestic fellows consume debts and EMIs, not fishes, pearls, diamonds, branded apparels, software.
As a result, Digital India is on quicksand of borrowings and low-paying jobs or services which are ill-afforded to play the dazzle trillions GDP show which actually survived on USA consumption and foreign remittances from the land of Uncle John.
The harsh reality is that Indian economy, for the first time in history, is largely facing the greatest bottleneck both in exports of goods, services and manpower supply dependence only to a single nation constituting 60% of purchase and 30% by its crony nations in Europe, Japan, Korea — which too have one substantial purchaser.
The problem of world economy since 1945 after the demise of the British power is that USA and Europe consumed everything, even the billions of immigrants’ services still now, who served their domestic economy greatly by remitting precious dollars to the country exchequer.
In this way, the third world silently shifted colossal wealth of the West to the East since 1991, and the result is China, Vikashit Bharat, Vietnam, Brazil, Canada, Mexico etc., and India’s GDP dazzle.
India’s gradual tilt to BRICS nations, although having substantial powerhouse of natural resources and technical expertise radiating an alternative of tumbled West, will definitely help us to keep the critical supply chain robust, mitigating the domestic industry and market needs — but as these nations like India are all exporting nations with the same destinations, USA, Australia and European markets, for financial survival.
So, the issue is — who will move the standstill refurbished old station wagon of India?
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