Balance Sheet of the Demonetization- After suspension of more than 80% of the Nation’s total Currency took place
You may recall my previous article titled as “Demonetisation- a Misguided Missile fired in Haste” which was well appreciated as well as criticised by various intellectuals at famous professional Website “”Tax Guru””. However I am happy to see so much response on the same.
Now as the deadline of 50 days is over, through this new write up, an effort has been made to highlight the gains and losses(both monetary and non monetary) on the so called surgical strike of Government on black money, as well as reasons of not getting desired results & some suggestions to take some effective steps if Govt is indeed serious to curb this menace of black money from our economy .
| Monetary Benefits | ||||
| To RBI/Govt. – Liability of RBI reduced to the extent money not received | Rs. Crores | Rs. Crores | Source | |
| Total currency in circulation | 17,54,000 | Business Standard dated
08-11-2016 |
||
| Out of this, currency attributing to 500 & 1000 rupee notes | 15,44,000 | ET & India Express dated 13th Dec. 2016 | ||
| Less
Returned to banks (upto 30th Dec, Rs. 14.97 lacs crores as reported on ndtv.com, however we have reduced it to Rs. 14.50 lacs crores considering RBIs statement that these figures would need to be reconciled with the physical cash balances to eliminate accounting errors/possible double counts etc.(figures will be updated after RBI announcement) |
14,50,000* | Ndtv.com (Rs.14.97 Lacs Crores) dated 5th Jan 2017and PTI (Rs.14.5 Lacs crores) dated 5th Jan, 2017 and TOI (Rs. 14Lacs Crores) dated 28th Dec, 2016 | ||
| Balance not returned/ benefit to RBI | 94,000 | |||
| Add
Money recovered through raids etc, assuming that this is all black money and will be confiscated by the Govt. -Money recovered in old currency – New currency –majorly 2000 notes |
3185 86 |
3271 |
Indian Express
Dated 21st December 2016 |
|
| Add
Some of the money deposited may be proved as black after scrutiny–approx. This figure cannot be accurately estimated as it is a long time process of scrutiny/assessment go in years. |
10000 | 10000 | ||
| Total Benefits | 107271 | |||
Cost of demonetisation |
||||
| Printing & logistics | 16800 | Source- CMIE through Economic Times
and Indian Express dated 14.12.2016
|
||
| Overhead and operational cost of banks in terms of recalibration & other expenses | 35100 | |||
| Immediate short term business loss
Long term effect may be more |
61500 | |||
| Household -on account of wages lost | 15000 | |||
| Total cost | 128400 |
|||
| Net Monetary Loss | 21129*#
|
|||
| *This figure may further increase as people have the option to deposit 500 & 1000 Notes with RBI till 31st March 2017. | ||||
Various non monetary effects which may have adverse financial implications have not been taken into account, while calculating above.
# This is 0.5 % of GDP/Indian Economy & 4.8 % of Total Currency Demonetized. So we can say that this is totally insignificant outcome of such a big decision.
Non monetary effects
| Issue
|
Expectation / Benefits | Reality / Losses | Source |
| Liquidity of banks will improve | Decrease in lending rate resulting into cheaper loans to public including corporate | Borrowing rate will also reduce which will affect the common man. Specifically the pensioners& small depositors, however to some extent interest rates have been protected by announcing a scheme for senior citizens for depositing money for 10 years @ 8% (though present rate is 8.5%). In case interest rates drastically reduced, bank deposits will decrease. Banks in this case may not be the gainers. |
The Times of India dated 31-12-2016 |
| Fake currency | Immediately out of system. | -No information is available with anybody i.e. how much fake currency was in circulation.
-No additional security feature in new currency of 2000 note. -Duplicate currency already started flowing. |
NDTV.com
Dated 22-11-2016 Hindustan Times dated 01-12-2016 |
| Non cash transactions | Will facilitate transparency. | Hidden/ extra cost included in digital transactions from 1-2.5% which will ultimately benefit the digital service providers like Paytm, Reliance Jio, varies Banks etc. It is difficult to understand why Government is becoming Brand Ambassador of these companies. | In practise |
| Death Toll | Was not expected at all. | Opposition/Media have claimed that 150 people have died because of demonetisation. Even if 50% of this is true, this will be a big loss to the public. | Economic Times dated 08th December 2016 |
| Loss of Jobs | Will give a boom to employment sector in long run | Loss of jobs due to business halt and other adverse effects has already started, | Hindustan Times dated 06-12-2016 |
| Loss in GDP growth | Minor short term loss | 1-2% estimated by various economists. Assuming on conservative side if loss is @1% than this is permanent loss of Rs. 1,30,000 crores which is irreparable. | Economic Times dated 25th November 2016 |
| Big Loss to Agriculture Sector | Was not expected | -Great hit to rural agrarian economy due to shortage of cash to purchase seeds, fertilisers and pesticides needed for plantation of rabi crops.
-Even farmers were forced to sell the vegetables at throwaway prices& even perishable vegetables thrown out at roadsides. |
First Post dated 18-11-2016& other various media reports. |
| Small Business men | Support to the existing business | Halt in small businesses like textile sector, bidi business men and many more. Some of them have closed their business and others are badly affected. | Indian Express dated 21st Nov. 2016 & many other news |
| Delay in GST | Will provide support to the tax reform | Implementation of GST delayed by at least 2 months i.e. from April to June 2017 due to Demonetization. | Live Mint
Dated 02nd January 2017 |
| Loss of working hours of Parliament | Nothing was expected | Almost complete winter session of Parliament has been wasted without any significant / regular proceedings which has resulted into 97 hours loss in LokSabha& 90 hoursloss in RajyaSabha. This cost of lost hours is from taxpayers money without any significant outcome. | DNA India dated 16th December 2016 |
| Common Man Hassles | Temporary hassles for 50 days leading to greater benefits | – Lengthy queues, and hours of common people wasted
– About 800,000 truck drivers were affected with scarcity of cash, with around 400,000 trucks stranded at major highways across India were reported. – Daily wage earners to bear the brunt |
DNA dated 14-11-2016 |
| a. Big fishes remained out of the net
b. Terrorism and Smuggling activities |
Will be spending sleepless nights
Will be curbed to a greater extent |
The big fishes who were holding major junk of black are escaped as they easily converted their old currency into new one due to loopholes kept open.
Since more than 95 % of the cash black money has already been converted/ returned, so its evident that even black money lying with terrorists and smugglers was converted into new one due to loopholes kept open. |
|
| Chaos nationwide | Not much expected | Some violence was reported in New Delhi, people attacked bank premises and ATMs. Though general public largely supported move expecting it will help wiping out black money | Indian Express dated
13-11-2016 |
| Direct Taxes | Collections will improve | Collections after Demonization as on date yet to be known | – |
NET Result- IT’S more of A FAILURE than GAIN
Since, 90% of the banned currency received back so defeated the very purpose of Demonetization decision.
Reasons for the Failure –
1) Information leaked prior to announcement-As, discussed in my previous article, this information is already leaked, result of which was major black money hoarders including political partiesalready converted or deposited money into banks.
2) More Time given for conversion of old notes instead one week was enough (50 days by Banks + additional 90 days by RBI ) – This has resulted into so many ways found to convert black money & 95 % of the money in circulation already deposited in Banks.
3) Govt/ RBI was not prepared which is evident from the following –
-Circulars issued by RBI– 74 circulars have been issued by RBI in 50 days since demonetisation to stop the black money. Details of circulars issued already given in Indian Express. Loss already happened before issuance of these circulars is irreparable.
–Sufficient cash not available
4) Various avenues were kept wide open to convert black money –
If Government was serious than these avenues should have been closed before announcing such an important decision.
- Deposits upto Rs. 2.5 lacs in normal bank accounts & upto Rs. 50000/- in Jandhan accounts allowed without any scrutiny
- Identity cards loophole – upto first 10 days, one ID card was allowed to be used in ‘n’ number of branches
- Deposit of black money by showing it Agriculture & other exempted incomes.
- Deposits at Religious places like Temple, Gurudwara etc.
- Deposits in the accounts of political parties as they do not come under RTI or Income Tax
- Increase in purchase of Gold in Tons & other costly items for cash both before & after the decision
- Up to more than one month old currency was allowed to use at varies places such as Petrol pumps, hospitals ,govt dues , air / railways tickets may more . Many of these were used to convert old currency instead of genuine use.
5) Opposition parties were not taken into confidence for taking such a big decision – Lack of support from Opposition parties
Measures to be taken for overcoming this failure :
1) Political parties should be taken under the purview of Income Tax & RTI.
It is said that “Charity begins at home”, for making people realise,first of all major political parties including Congress &BJP itself has to preach the move of getting into cashless &white transactions and start receiving & paying cheque payment with an undertaking from donor that he is giving this donation from his tax paid white money.
But unfortunately it is not evident at all Exemption of Political parties reaffirmed/continued even they were allowed to deposit old currency notes without any limit& questioning though for common man limit was fixed( refer news in Indian Express dated 17th Dec 2016 )
2) Big Religious centres should be taken under Income Tax & RTI purview.
3) Stringent anti-corruption law should be made to take action against corrupt people and implementation mechanism should be made strong.
4) Large scale agricultural income should be brought under the scanner of Government/Taxation System, specifically, the zimindars who are declaring huge agricultural income and also disproportionate to the productivity of land etc. However, small and medium farmers should surely be left out.
Contrary to this Govt has issued draft Anti-corruption amendment bill 2016 protecting Alleged Corrupt Govt employees including from peon to Secretary i.e.police to take “previous approval” of competent authority ie Central Govtbefore conducting any enquiry or investigation against a public servant . Taking permission from Central Govt against its own employees (specifically Senior ) will never be easy and it will be leaked to those employees before action taken they will easily escape.
Similarly the government has provided another opportunity for people with black money to come clean at a total cost of 50% .The 50% levy is broken up into 30% tax, a 33% surcharge or cess on that tax and a 10% penalty (Pradhan MantriGaribKalyanYojna 2016)
This is indeed an encouragement to Black money hoarders and discouragement to honest tax payers.
5) Salary of Government employees should be matched with the corporate sectors employees and at the same time efficiency should also be ensured
6) Digitization – People should encourage to use non cash transactions by motivation not by force.
7) Circulation of fake currency to be stopped. Security features should be more (Plastic money can be the option).
8) Tax rates to be decreased – Both Direct & Indirect so as to widen the tax base.
9) Stringent measures to be taken to stop cash purchase of property & other costly items – Like new act should be passed that gives power to Government to acquire the new purchased property within one year after paying say 50% of the extra registry price.
10) All transactions to be included under GST including property tax.
11) Simple norms for tax compliances should be introduced.
12) Social security should be strengthened.
Conclusion
From the above discussion, our estimate that this decision is “A Misguided Missile fired in Haste” is proving to be true but thanks to the public that inspite of hardships and losses they have largely supported the decision.
Hopefully intention may be good but should have been taken very carefully with full preparations as such a huge decision is taken once in a century. It is a Brahamastra which is very rarely used or used in emergency but this time it has been released without any preparation or used in haste.
We hope that this is not a case of “Repeated History” (Refer old story of Mohammad Tughlaq, we read in the childhood).
Jai Hind
(Author can be reached at [email protected])
*Member ZAC Chandigarh, Service Tax, Govt. of India, Member RAC Chandigarh, Central Excise & Customs, Member Indirect Tax committee SIAM , Member, ASSOCHAM Indirect Taxes Committee, Chief General Manager Finance- SML Isuzu Ltd. Winner Achiever Award 2015 By ICAI (CMA)
Author Bio
Excellant interpetation of Demonetisation.
Nice article Sir
The articles is well said and all monetary and
non monetary has shown well the corruption can be reduced but it cannot be demolish at all The main reason is out intutions which creates all these problem so Pahle Apne aap ko saf karo and man me ye dal do ke me corruption nai karunga and yahi seekh dusro ko do tabhi mitega warna kabhi nai ye sab to politics ha r kuch nai in sab se ye thoda
kam to hoga lekin Khatam nai hoga kabhi
Detailed article with well analysed inputs. But after reading it i would like to ask one simple question; why is it so that we always look at things with a negative approach? We talked about monetary losses. Why aren’t we interested in qualitative reforms? In the entire article, i believe one point is left out i.e. “Transparency in system”. If a salaried person has willfully accepted the tax paying mechanisms with his or her hard earned money then why not the contribution of rest of the sections of people. I think now the time has come that we all should broad our horizon to cater to all levels of living outlook.
Very well analysed article. The tax recoveries on amount deposited may go up sharply and IT dept may be given targets so that the demonitization is proved to be a success.
The writer has tried to analyze and presented one side view. As per his report 17.54LCr was the notes under circulation. Of this 15.44LCr were in Rs500 and Rs1000 and in circulation. This is the catch. Circulation among whom? Govt wanted to know only this. Govt wanted all that printed currency to come back fully accounted for. Govt did not know who had how much of this cash. Now Govt came to know. That is enough for the Govt to plan any future things
Now Let us analyze: We are 125crore people, of that about 30crore are below 18 and have no income, another 15 crore are those who are above 18 and below 60, but have nothing or earn nothing, another 5 crore are old people have nothing and depend on others, another 30crore zero balance JDY a/c holders. Balance population is : 125-30-15-5-30=45crores. In this about 40 crores are people govt / working and earn less than 2,50,000/- and pay no taxes and may have max 10k of these notes as cash. That is 40Cr x10K =4LCr. Therefore the balance (45-40)=5Cr people have 15.44-4.00=11.44 cr cash (these notes)!!. Of these only 1cr file returns and have declared that they have taxable income and say they have each 1L as cash. That will give 1L Cr. Balance amount is 11.44-1=10.44 L Cr cash is held by 4 cr people. That means these 4 crore people, each has (10.44/4=) 2.61 lakh as cash and did not file returns- this is the question, why these people keep that cash and what they do with that. For this question (from IT dept.) say 1 cr people will be able to give some reasons, and may get out, but others cannot. That means 2.61LCr is accounted, balance is 10.44-2.61=7.83Lcr has come back into bank accounts without reasons for its source!!. Now Pay 50% for this as tax plus panelty, and 25% to PM’s Garib Kalyan deposit. That means Govt will get 1.95LCr as deposit to which Govt need not pay any interest for 4 years. And the windfall is the 50% tax which will be =7.83×0.50=3.9LCr and recovered tax. This will be the minimum result after 4-6 months, when full calculations are done by IT dept & banks. It is benefits and benefits to the nation and nothing else.
Absolutely incorrect. The author has failed to give the graphic picture of DAILY REPORT ON CIRCULATION OF MONEY. Prior to liberalisation in 1991 the RBI would be issuing daily statement of REPORT ON MONEY CIRCULATION and THE HINDU published it with its comments in THE PAGE ON ECONOMICS 11TH PAGE BEFORE SPORTS. However after liberalisation this was given a go by. Earlier it was linked to DEFICIT BUDGET which was also given a go by. In 1996 US sounded India extraordinary fluctuations in INWARD AND OUTWARD REMITTANCES and its impact on appreciation of value f RUPEE against Dollar. Thus the article failed to give how there has been manifold increase in money supply not brought to bank kept outside resulting in skyrocketting of REAL ESTATE AND GOLD prices as well as impact on price of diesel and other petroleum products. The eseential cause of demonetisation is heavy currency kept outside banks. Whether MODI is there or not it has to come one day. If people don’t switch over to DIGITAL payment thisis going to happen. Instead of looking at the issue as victory or defeat let the economists give candid suggestions how to reduce circulaton of currency without accounted in banks.
well researched article, tks,
but for good we are now moving forward…..it has brought discipline and order in the conduct of business transctions. every kind of change bring some pains and it is only temperory…most importantly it bring to us a challenge to prepare us all citizens to migrate to cashless world as well as influence others who we deal with to do the like. then the results could be much bigger so to say.
In final assessment it was a disaster .
I again appreciate your article but still thought that for treatment of cancer you had only one way that is chemotherapy. Black money in the system is at acute level which needs to be addressed. It was addressed to some how extent. One more thing I would like to say that In India only 24 lacs of people are earning income above ten lacs and what all menance showing in media is particulary for its roll back. Further like to recall the exemption limit under Income tax that in last ten years the the basic exemption limit was increased over a period from Rs.100000 which only in 2006-07 and now it is 250000/- only. Also during the period the inflation was a peak rate and it was very difficult for a common man to surive for his livelihood and how that person can save with such high inflation and under basic exemption. Hope you might do more elaborate working on demonitisation as you all views are just a compilation of media and opposition political parties and few of them who do not want this move as there might be required to pay taxes now which they not paying taking some how immunity. Just wait for an official report from government.
The article is well written , but the real benefit or loss can be assessed only after the result of five state elections and the financial statistics of the IIIrd and IVth qtrs are announced.
Rakeshji, wonderful article which covers quantitative and qualitative sides of demonetization. This was truly a wrongful decision which has pushed back our economy , without any substantial gain with lot of public suffering. In fact it will neither reduce corruption nor black money. Govt. should focus on good governance and ease of compliance ending inspector raj, ensuring strict adherence to existing law etc, which would rather help in reducing corruption. Corruption has a direct link to accumulation of black money. Japan is one of the largest cash economy ( 20% of GDP as cash economy) with least corruption. Digitalization of transactions will again may not help reducing corruption, rather create inconvenience for the poor mass and SMEs.
Excelent Interpretetion on Demotenisation.
sir, Nice article
Very nice explanation with qualitative and quantitative facts…
Nice artical and we fully agree with you ?
Using speculative data in media, counting one time costs like printing…… Well done Mr.CMA. Says a lot about your competence…. Sorry to say it!
Excellant and true analysis of Demonetisation Balance Sheet, nicely explained and raises eyebrows to implement this Harsh Decision. Though in favor of Nation as a whole but implemented without proper planning and back office work.
Thanks
Prem Aggarwal
What about hugh loans given to corporates and due to heavy non payment these bad loan several big banks came in monetary crisis even on the stage of bank crupts.but no steps are not taken against these corporates. Only to save banks which are ont the stage of bankcruptsy this step has been taken by showing lolipops like 50 din do desh badal dunga.mere writig is easy by throwing figures but go to small villages and see whst they are facing.one may liketell that it is temprary .But also ask govt.why they are not handing over names of these bloody cororates having loan of lakhs of crors to supreme court. Even you must try for it.but not u also has no answer.
Excellent article sir.
Dear Sir,
Nice article with useful analysis but details are changed because official figures are not announce 2nd If interest rate reduced than lending rate also change so there is benifits for huge middle class family and 3rd govt is not running buisness so gain loss question not arise if policies are directly or indirectly for benifit of public for example today NBT news 60% reduction in terrorist attack in J & K.
Thanks with due respect