Balance Sheet of the Demonetization- After suspension of more than 80% of the Nation’s total Currency took place
You may recall my previous article titled as “Demonetisation- a Misguided Missile fired in Haste” which was well appreciated as well as criticised by various intellectuals at famous professional Website “”Tax Guru””. However I am happy to see so much response on the same.
Now as the deadline of 50 days is over, through this new write up, an effort has been made to highlight the gains and losses(both monetary and non monetary) on the so called surgical strike of Government on black money, as well as reasons of not getting desired results & some suggestions to take some effective steps if Govt is indeed serious to curb this menace of black money from our economy .
|To RBI/Govt. – Liability of RBI reduced to the extent money not received||Rs. Crores||Rs. Crores||Source|
|Total currency in circulation||17,54,000||Business Standard dated
|Out of this, currency attributing to 500 & 1000 rupee notes||15,44,000||ET & India Express dated 13th Dec. 2016|
Returned to banks (upto 30th Dec, Rs. 14.97 lacs crores as reported on ndtv.com, however we have reduced it to Rs. 14.50 lacs crores considering RBIs statement that these figures would need to be reconciled with the physical cash balances to eliminate accounting errors/possible double counts etc.(figures will be updated after RBI announcement)
|14,50,000*||Ndtv.com (Rs.14.97 Lacs Crores) dated 5th Jan 2017and PTI (Rs.14.5 Lacs crores) dated 5th Jan, 2017 and TOI (Rs. 14Lacs Crores) dated 28th Dec, 2016|
|Balance not returned/ benefit to RBI||94,000|
Money recovered through raids etc, assuming that this is all black money and will be confiscated by the Govt.
-Money recovered in old currency
– New currency –majorly 2000 notes
Dated 21st December 2016
Some of the money deposited may be proved as black after scrutiny–approx.
This figure cannot be accurately estimated as it is a long time process of scrutiny/assessment go in years.
Cost of demonetisation
|Printing & logistics||16800||Source- CMIE through Economic Times
Indian Express dated 14.12.2016
|Overhead and operational cost of banks in terms of recalibration & other expenses||35100|
|Immediate short term business loss
Long term effect may be more
|Household -on account of wages lost||15000|
|Net Monetary Loss||21129*#
|*This figure may further increase as people have the option to deposit 500 & 1000 Notes with RBI till 31st March 2017.|
Various non monetary effects which may have adverse financial implications have not been taken into account, while calculating above.
# This is 0.5 % of GDP/Indian Economy & 4.8 % of Total Currency Demonetized. So we can say that this is totally insignificant outcome of such a big decision.
Non monetary effects
|Expectation / Benefits||Reality / Losses||Source|
|Liquidity of banks will improve||Decrease in lending rate resulting into cheaper loans to public including corporate||Borrowing rate will also reduce which will affect the common man. Specifically the pensioners& small depositors, however to some extent interest rates have been protected by announcing a scheme for senior citizens for depositing money for 10 years @ 8% (though present rate is 8.5%).
In case interest rates drastically reduced, bank deposits will decrease. Banks in this case may not be the gainers.
|The Times of India dated 31-12-2016|
|Fake currency||Immediately out of system.||-No information is available with anybody i.e. how much fake currency was in circulation.
-No additional security feature in new currency of 2000 note.
-Duplicate currency already started flowing.
Hindustan Times dated 01-12-2016
|Non cash transactions||Will facilitate transparency.||Hidden/ extra cost included in digital transactions from 1-2.5% which will ultimately benefit the digital service providers like Paytm, Reliance Jio, varies Banks etc. It is difficult to understand why Government is becoming Brand Ambassador of these companies.||In practise|
|Death Toll||Was not expected at all.||Opposition/Media have claimed that 150 people have died because of demonetisation. Even if 50% of this is true, this will be a big loss to the public.||Economic Times dated 08th December 2016|
|Loss of Jobs||Will give a boom to employment sector in long run||Loss of jobs due to business halt and other adverse effects has already started,||Hindustan Times dated 06-12-2016|
|Loss in GDP growth||Minor short term loss||1-2% estimated by various economists. Assuming on conservative side if loss is @1% than this is permanent loss of Rs. 1,30,000 crores which is irreparable.||Economic Times dated 25th November 2016|
|Big Loss to Agriculture Sector||Was not expected||-Great hit to rural agrarian economy due to shortage of cash to purchase seeds, fertilisers and pesticides needed for plantation of rabi crops.
-Even farmers were forced to sell the vegetables at throwaway prices& even perishable vegetables thrown out at roadsides.
|First Post dated 18-11-2016& other various media reports.|
|Small Business men||Support to the existing business||Halt in small businesses like textile sector, bidi business men and many more. Some of them have closed their business and others are badly affected.||Indian Express dated 21st Nov. 2016 & many other news|
|Delay in GST||Will provide support to the tax reform||Implementation of GST delayed by at least 2 months i.e. from April to June 2017 due to Demonetization.||Live Mint
Dated 02nd January 2017
|Loss of working hours of Parliament||Nothing was expected||Almost complete winter session of Parliament has been wasted without any significant / regular proceedings which has resulted into 97 hours loss in LokSabha& 90 hoursloss in RajyaSabha. This cost of lost hours is from taxpayers money without any significant outcome.||DNA India dated 16th December 2016|
|Common Man Hassles||Temporary hassles for 50 days leading to greater benefits||– Lengthy queues, and hours of common people wasted
– About 800,000 truck drivers were affected with scarcity of cash, with around 400,000 trucks stranded at major highways across India were reported.
– Daily wage earners to bear the brunt
DNA dated 14-11-2016
|a. Big fishes remained out of the net
b. Terrorism and Smuggling activities
|Will be spending sleepless nights
Will be curbed to a greater extent
|The big fishes who were holding major junk of black are escaped as they easily converted their old currency into new one due to loopholes kept open.
Since more than 95 % of the cash black money has already been converted/ returned, so its evident that even black money lying with terrorists and smugglers was converted into new one due to loopholes kept open.
|Chaos nationwide||Not much expected||Some violence was reported in New Delhi, people attacked bank premises and ATMs. Though general public largely supported move expecting it will help wiping out black money||Indian Express dated
|Direct Taxes||Collections will improve||Collections after Demonization as on date yet to be known||–|
Since, 90% of the banned currency received back so defeated the very purpose of Demonetization decision.
Reasons for the Failure –
1) Information leaked prior to announcement-As, discussed in my previous article, this information is already leaked, result of which was major black money hoarders including political partiesalready converted or deposited money into banks.
2) More Time given for conversion of old notes instead one week was enough (50 days by Banks + additional 90 days by RBI ) – This has resulted into so many ways found to convert black money & 95 % of the money in circulation already deposited in Banks.
3) Govt/ RBI was not prepared which is evident from the following –
-Circulars issued by RBI– 74 circulars have been issued by RBI in 50 days since demonetisation to stop the black money. Details of circulars issued already given in Indian Express. Loss already happened before issuance of these circulars is irreparable.
–Sufficient cash not available
4) Various avenues were kept wide open to convert black money –
If Government was serious than these avenues should have been closed before announcing such an important decision.
5) Opposition parties were not taken into confidence for taking such a big decision – Lack of support from Opposition parties
1) Political parties should be taken under the purview of Income Tax & RTI.
It is said that “Charity begins at home”, for making people realise,first of all major political parties including Congress &BJP itself has to preach the move of getting into cashless &white transactions and start receiving & paying cheque payment with an undertaking from donor that he is giving this donation from his tax paid white money.
But unfortunately it is not evident at all Exemption of Political parties reaffirmed/continued even they were allowed to deposit old currency notes without any limit& questioning though for common man limit was fixed( refer news in Indian Express dated 17th Dec 2016 )
2) Big Religious centres should be taken under Income Tax & RTI purview.
3) Stringent anti-corruption law should be made to take action against corrupt people and implementation mechanism should be made strong.
4) Large scale agricultural income should be brought under the scanner of Government/Taxation System, specifically, the zimindars who are declaring huge agricultural income and also disproportionate to the productivity of land etc. However, small and medium farmers should surely be left out.
Contrary to this Govt has issued draft Anti-corruption amendment bill 2016 protecting Alleged Corrupt Govt employees including from peon to Secretary i.e.police to take “previous approval” of competent authority ie Central Govtbefore conducting any enquiry or investigation against a public servant . Taking permission from Central Govt against its own employees (specifically Senior ) will never be easy and it will be leaked to those employees before action taken they will easily escape.
Similarly the government has provided another opportunity for people with black money to come clean at a total cost of 50% .The 50% levy is broken up into 30% tax, a 33% surcharge or cess on that tax and a 10% penalty (Pradhan MantriGaribKalyanYojna 2016)
This is indeed an encouragement to Black money hoarders and discouragement to honest tax payers.
5) Salary of Government employees should be matched with the corporate sectors employees and at the same time efficiency should also be ensured
6) Digitization – People should encourage to use non cash transactions by motivation not by force.
7) Circulation of fake currency to be stopped. Security features should be more (Plastic money can be the option).
8) Tax rates to be decreased – Both Direct & Indirect so as to widen the tax base.
9) Stringent measures to be taken to stop cash purchase of property & other costly items – Like new act should be passed that gives power to Government to acquire the new purchased property within one year after paying say 50% of the extra registry price.
10) All transactions to be included under GST including property tax.
11) Simple norms for tax compliances should be introduced.
12) Social security should be strengthened.
From the above discussion, our estimate that this decision is “A Misguided Missile fired in Haste” is proving to be true but thanks to the public that inspite of hardships and losses they have largely supported the decision.
Hopefully intention may be good but should have been taken very carefully with full preparations as such a huge decision is taken once in a century. It is a Brahamastra which is very rarely used or used in emergency but this time it has been released without any preparation or used in haste.
We hope that this is not a case of “Repeated History” (Refer old story of Mohammad Tughlaq, we read in the childhood).
(Author can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org)
*Member ZAC Chandigarh, Service Tax, Govt. of India, Member RAC Chandigarh, Central Excise & Customs, Member Indirect Tax committee SIAM , Member, ASSOCHAM Indirect Taxes Committee, Chief General Manager Finance- SML Isuzu Ltd. Winner Achiever Award 2015 By ICAI (CMA)