Since the beginning of 2013, Rupee has reached 60.61 as compared to dollar. It has depreciated nearly 13% since May which became a major concern for country. At the time of independence in 1947, the rate of dollar was equal to rupee. The increased volatility in rupee – dollar rates has given sleepless nights to policy makers which require mapping strategies between Government and RBI.           

NSE, MCX-SX and USE (United stock exchange) provide currency trading platform due to which they are likely to be adversely affected.

REASONS FOR RUPEE DEPRECIATION

BALANCE OF PAYMENT IMBALANCE

Current account deficit rises as imports become costlier which may accelerate wholesale and retail inflation due to costlier consumer goods like phones, cars etc. (which use imported goods) and fuels. Higher inflation and falling rupee will not allow monetary easing. Spending on discretionary goods will be effected. Globally the price of oil is quoted in dollars due to which refiners have to pay more for crude i.e. $105 per barrel from an average of about $100 in the month of June.

POLITICAL TURNMOIL IN EGYPT

Egypt supplied retreated oil through Suez Canal or pipeline running through Arab countries but political crises in the state caused interruptions which are expected to revive after appointment of military interim president.

RECESSION IN EUROZONE – INDIA’S LARGEST SUPPLY MARKET

Due to recession in Eurozone, risk averse investors are selling Euro and buying Dollars which lead to appreciation of dollar against other currencies. More reliance is put on ECB by investors.

BRAIN-DRAIN DUE TO BETTER BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES IN U.S

Students are attracted towards USA because of better quality of business schools available there. After completing education they like to get employed in US due to higher level of salaries offered as compared to India and repay loan taken in dollars for financing education. Even aspirants of starting own venture find US as a more technologically advanced and start up friendly country.

FALL IN FOREX RESERVES- DUE TO SLOW CAPITAL FLOW

Lower capital flows depletes reserve. Corporate margins may dig due to low demand and higher input cost. Higher subsidy offered by Government in oil and fertilizers will adversely effect

COSTLIER ROLLING OVER DEBT- LEAD TO DEBT RESTRUCTURING

Declining profitability due to lower demand of restructured companies worsened debt payment capability.

POOR SENSEX PERFORMANCE DUE TO LOST INVESTOR’S  CONFIDENCE

Due to past scams of companies in India investors lost confidence. Markets becoming volatile. Shift is seen from delivery based market to derivative or cash market as in derivatives only margins are required to be deposited whereas in delivery full price need to be paid to book order.

BLACK MONEY ECONOMY

Concentration of Indian money in Swiss banks to avoid taxes leads to decreasing its value.

POOR PERFORMANCE OF MUTUAL FUNDS

Excessive regulations and fall in prices of equity funds effected mutual fund sector.

INVESTMENT BANKS QUIT INDIA

Slowing deal cycles and falling stock markets pushed more than 200 banks out of India

IMPACT OF RUPEE DEPRECIATION ON COUNTRY

 ADVERSE EFFECT ON DOLLAR EARNING COMPANIES.

Those companies earning in dollars will have to suffer exchange losses like IT firms.

ADVERSE EFFECT ON CONSUMER PRODUCTS INDUSTRIES

Automobile industry, Electronic industry (mobile, ipad etc.), FMCG industry that rely on imported components to be used in manufacturing will suffer as now imports will become expensive.

ADVERSE EFFECT IN TRANSPORT INDUSTRY

Need to curb leisure drive due to increase in fuel prices. Even air travels become expensive due to rise in prices of aviation fuel

HIT IN GOLD PRICES

In last 13years, first time fall in gold prices is seen due to investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value.

DENT IN RAW CASHEW IMPORTS

Cashew processor exporters usually import raw nuts from Africa which will become costlier due to depreciation in rupee value.

INFLATION WILL RISE

Curb discretionary spend to adjust for higher prices. 06.08% point rise in wholesale inflation if rupee drops 10%..

INCREASE IN INTEREST RATE

No chances of interest rate cut due to which EMIs will remain high.

US TRIPS AND STUDIES BECOME EXPENSIVE

Now more rupees will be needed to buy same number of dollar.

FALL IN MUTUAL FUNDS AND SHARES

If FIIs pull out more funds, then investment in shares and mutual funds will fall.

PROPOSED MEASURES BY GOVERNMENT

      DIRECT FUNDING DONE BY CENTRAL BANK FOR CRUDE OIL PURCHASES BY REFINARIES

Companies like BPCL, HPCL shall fund their requirement for dollar from one bank only so as to reduce market volatility.

      ISSUES OF BONDS

Floating a non-resident bond to mob up dollars.

      FUEL COST CUT

Cutting fuel use by 40% in military driven vehicles.

      RAISING FDI IN VARIOUS SECTORS

Increase in FDI cap in various sectors like telecom, defence etc. by 49% through direct route since stable flows needed to fund current account deficit which has widened to 4.8% of GDP in 2012-13.

      RBI REGULATION

RBI restricted banks from doing proprietary account trades in exchange traded currency segment. SEBI imposed stringent restrictions on trading positions and doubled margin requirements.

      BOOST DOMESTIC MANUFACTURING

The manufacturing sector has seen a sharp reduction in growth since last year falling to 1% in 2012-13. This has even affected service sector. Strategies should be formulated to boost steel production, textile exports, launch of pilot project on electric and hybrid vehicles for Delhi. Government is also taking initiative to build an indigenous mid – sized civilian aircraft.

      CURBING BLACK MONEY ECONOMY

Directing that money retained outside should be brought back to India. Now Mauritius is ready to plug loopholes in tax treaty.

      CURBING UNNECESSARY EXPENDITURE OVERSEA

Imposing restrictions on discretionary non-trade payments overseas.

      TAPPING DOMESTIC SAVINGS

Efforts should be made to direct domestic saving towards capital markets rather them piling them at home. More currency circulation will help in quick revival.

CONCLUSION

Major issues causing fall in rupee value is fiscal deficit i.e. excessive imports, excessive government borrowings which lead to inflation. Hence proper budgets at state and central level must be prepared by planning together and co-ordinating with each other. Multi – functional teams must be constructed with people draws from various spheres of the country to form strategies for the overall development of the country rather than concentrating on political interests.

A prosperous economy needs growth through accelerating exports, increasing investments, boosting manufacture, trading and service activities. This requires circulating money through meaningful channels and making India a business attractive spot by reducing number of regulation for building ventures.

—————

WRITTEN BY – SHRUTIKA KOHLI

B.COM (H), MBA (FINANCE)

CA (FINAL) STUDENT

Email i.d. – kohlishrutika12@gmail.com

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0 responses to “Rupee Vs. Dollar -Reasons, Impact & Proposed Measures By Govt.”

  1. hemen parekh says:

    Create Wealth to Create Jobs

    Our current Personal Income Tax slabs are :

    > Up to Rs 2.0 Lakhs………………….. NIL
    > 2.1 Lakh – 5.0 Lakh……………….. 10 %
    > 5.1 Lakh – 10.0 Lakh………………. 20 %
    > More than Rs 10 lakh……………….. 30 %

    That means , the more you earn , the more tax you pay !

    How does this wrong tax regime hurt our economy ?

    This regime ,

    > Punishes honest people

    > Penalizes wealth creation

    > Encourages creation of ” Black Money ”

    > Provides incentive for tax evasion

    > Diverts resources into unproductive assts such as cash/gold/land etc

    > Stops people from working harder / smarter

    With this regime , people tend to ask :

    > Why should I work hard and earn more , if the more I earn the more I
    pay ?

    > Why not evade paying taxes by hiding real income ?

    > How will I ever be able to buy that 1 room flat costing Rs 50 lakhs ? I
    need Rs 20 lakhs by way of black money to buy it ! Where do I get that ?

    > For every rupee that the government collects from me as tax , only 15
    paise come back to me in the form of civic amenities .

    A few years back , the tax regime was worse !

    One ended up paying , by way of tax , Rs 0.93 from every rupee earned !

    And after heaping on the honest tax-payers , all such disincentives , how much does our government collect by way of taxes ?

    > Total Tax Receipts ……………………………….. Rs 12.4 Lakh Crores

    > Personal Income Tax contributes………………..Rs 2.47 Lakh Crores

    Is there a way to raise that Rs 2.47 lakh Crores to Rs 247 Lakh Crores ?

    Can we raise it by 100 FOLD ?

    I am not an Economist ( my advantage ! )

    So , here is my crazy suggestion

    ” Inverse ” the tax slabs as follows :

    > Up to Rs 2 lakhs………………… NIL
    > 2.1 – 5.0 lakhs…………………. 10 %
    > 5.1 – 10 lakhs………………….. 8 %
    > 10.1 – 20 lakhs…………………. 6 %
    > 20.1 – 50 lakhs………………… 5 %
    > 50.1 – 100 lakhs………………… 3 %
    > Above 100 lakhs…………………. 1 %

    What is likely to happen with such ” INVERSE TAXATION ” regime ?

    Following few things :

    > Total personal tax payer base will go up dramatically from current 4
    crores tax-payers

    > Total personal tax collection too , will rise dramatically

    > Today , only 1 % of 4 crores tax payers ( approx 4 lakhs ) , contribute
    nearly 63 % of personal tax revenue ( of Rs 2.47 lakh crores )

    This ratio will change to , may be , 20 % of tax payers !

    > with this ” INVERSE TAX REGIME ” , there will be no incentive to evade
    taxes and to generate ” BLACK MONEY ”

    There will be no resistance to accept ALL payments by cheque / electronic
    clearance !

    The more you disclose as your income , the less you pay by way of taxes

    > For a change , we will learn to reward honesty / efficiency / productivity !
    No need to bribe those Income Tax officers !

    > Suddenly , lakhs of crores of BLACK MONEY , stashed away in bank
    lockers / gold / land – and , of course those Swiss bank accounts – will ,
    suddenly become ” WHITE MONEY ” !

    > There will be a huge surge in bank deposits ( – even with , the inevitable
    lower interest rates )

    > Banks will be awash with funds to finance businesses / infrastructure
    projects etc , encouraging entrepreneurs / self-employed to set up new
    businesses ( at 2 % interest rates of loans ) and generate millions of jobs

    > There will be a phenomenal rise in Capital Markets

    Now couple this ” INVERSE TAX REGIME ” , with the following ” TAX FREE ” investment schemes , by creating Special Purpose Vehicles ( SPV ) :

    > NaMo MEGA-CITY SPV

    To implement Narendra Modi’s ambitious project to build 100 smart cities,
    at an investment of Rs 70 lakh crores , in next 5 years

    This project alone will create 5 million new jobs , every year

    > RaGa MEGA – JOBS SPV

    To implement Rahul Gandhi’s equally ambitious project to provide jobs to
    50 million youth over the next 5 years , at an investment of Rs 50 lakh
    crores

    In my opinion , such ” INVERSE TAX REGIME ” , coupled with the above mentioned SPVs , will herald an ” ECONOMIC ECO – SYSTEM “, which,

    > will create jobs

    > shun tax evasion

    > reduce corruption

    > convert all BLACK MONEY into WHITE MONEY

    > channelize these WHITE MONEY into nation-building projects

    To complete this ECO SYSTEM , we need to think ” Out of the Box ” in the matter of Corporate Tax Regime , as well

    Current trend in industry , all over the world , is to

    > Add highly productive , very expensive machinery to ” Automate ” all
    manufacturing processes

    > Reduce manpower by increasing ” Capital / IT Intensity ”

    > Hire low skilled workers by transferring higher ” Skills ” to machinery

    > Outsource manufacturing to countries where manpower is cheap

    > Move out of ” Manufacturing ” and shift to ” Services ”

    India cannot swim against this World-wide Trend

    We must innovate, to not only survive but to grow in this scenario

    Here is my suggestion :

    Set in motion , ” INVERSION of JOB REDUCTION ” regime , under which ,

    ” The more jobs a company creates , the less Corporate Tax it pays ”

    Example :

    > Up to employment of 100 persons …………………………. 30 % tax
    > 101 – 500 persons……………………………………………. 25 %
    > 501 – 1000 persons …………………………………………… 20 %
    > 1001 – 5000 persons ………………………………………….. 15 %
    > 5001 – 10,000 persons …………………………………………. 10 %
    > Above 10,000 persons …………………………………………. 5 %

    Let us celebrate those who provide employment to large number of persons

    Let us celebrate BIGNESS

    Let us create hundreds of WORLD SIZE corporations and take on the World

    On top of this , provide additional tax – breaks ( discounts ? ) to corporate as follows :

    > Average Age of Employees at 30 years………………….. 1 %
    > Ave age at 25 years…………………………………………. 2 %
    > Ave age at 20 years …………………………………………. 3 %

    Of course , very strict and transparent rules will need to be framed to

    compute,

    > Number of Employees ( Permanent – not probationers / trainees )

    > Average Age ( as on 31 March of Tax year )……etc

    But , here is an important aspect of this ,

    ” Incentivize Job Creation ” Scheme

    Today’s labour laws make it extremely difficult – if not impossible – for employers to layoff / retrench workmen , if demand shrinks

    Hence , to take advantage of this Scheme , employers are unlikely to hire thousands of youth , if they cannot easily trim the workforce , to match the shrinking demand

    So , an important corollary of this Scheme is to modify our existing Labour Laws to facilitate layoff / retrenchment , when situation so demands , while protecting the interests of the workmen concerned

    And , last but not the least , permit each and every candidate – and the political parties as well – to spend ANY AMOUNT on election campaigns ,
    without any restrictions as also accept any amount of Corporate Donations
    by cheque

    I rest my case !

    * hemen parekh ( 27 Feb 2014 / Mumbai )

  2. Dhanesh says:

    Very good insight into the concept..

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