Before delving in to the most critical and complex subject like Economics and to adjudge it’s trajectory atleast for last 34 years since the nation paradigm shift from the socialist oriented economical set up to the market based capitalist economy, it is first worth to note that unlike the USSR, CHINA, VIETNAM, EAST EUROPE, CUBA Indian economy was not water tight socialist ideological based economy but was a mixed economy where private enterprises, ownership of land, businesses were selfsame of the capitalist economy like the West but having dominance of Govt. enterprises and steep govt control over the national economic activities. From 1991, post of shifting to the market based economy, although the positive impact of said change was not on too much appreciable level overall till the 2010 but from 2010 Indian economy started it’s magnanimous run of historical growth in every aspects of economy thus culminated to the fifth largest economy status in the world with highest consistent GDP growth rate still to the date. The present proud growth momentum contrary to the stagnant or diminishing growth rate of developed and ors economy has clearly manifested one concrete truth before the world that Indian economy is now one of most matured economy in the world financial pedestal with bullish stock market, highest foreign currencies reserve, growing export, strong domestic private sectors and private investment and rapid changes of life standard from rags to riches with emergence of many Indian multinational companies and world rated billionaires. In agriculture sector our growth rate is remarkable. This was the picture till the September, 24 but from October beginning many uncomfortable data’s and happenings has started to dott the pages of our fairy tale financial achievements as such continuous bleeding of stock market till now, nosediving of GDP growth rate from peak of 8.26% to 5.22% in last quarter, 40 years highest unemployment rate, high inflation, revenue deficits, clamor against tax burden on common people, slowing public consumption etc and many analysts are on strong misgivings that these reversal trend is just in the starting point and much more are in waiting.
Now on this perspective one natural question will automatically come to the mind and that is why such sudden set back of our fast growing economy? The simple answer is it is the most exacted result for building a castle in the air means enjoying the sweet fruits of a emerging market economy without any slightest effort to ensure it’s longjivity. In candid words building a glittering shopping mall over a 100 years more old dilapidated and tattering house. The shocking revelation and negative development of our economy is more than expected. Now for the sake of brevity pointwise deliberation will serve the best as:
1 For long and sustainable economic growth first indispensable element is the good and strong governance. India since independence infamous for it’s ret tapism and bureaucratic lethargy inspire of more than necessary man power in the government machinery both in state and central till 2000. Moreover slow digitalization of governance in comparison with other developed and emerging economy aggravated the problems more particularly the FDI both in business and market. However from 2010 our digital landscape particularly in e governance, the core word for economic success started to take high speed in central government and to handful of state govt. sectors but most of the states are still at the nascent stage of e governance and data management and preservation. Therefore the initial hiccup of fast growing economy is quickly loosing it’s charisma before the foreign investors and the rapid shift of FDI from Indian stock market to ors markets is sufficient sign.
2 Next is the consecutive central governments gross failure to reform the government machinery and taking such urgent steps like augmenting man power in every important govt. departments having direct impact on nation economy to recompensate the technological drawbacks. Instead of it since the 2000 every central and state governments started to take reverse step of drastic reduction of manpower due to the yoke of absurd high salaries of govt. and PSU and educational sector. As a result in last 25 years all crucial central and state govt. sectors are completely in disarray with fast diminishing staff strength as low as 24% in comparison of 44% in USA, the world capital of market economy and technology. This suicidal move is still on full scale by the recent approval of 8th pay comision by the central govt. As a result most govt. departments even the educational institutions are now going defunct which are the primary structures of national growth. Not only these, the serious inability of both central and state governments to deploy sufficient man power is quicky and smarty eating out the due national and state revenues thus aggravating the serious revenue deficit inspite of frantic efforts to conceal said set back by the dispensations. Adding to the owe is the high level of corruption in every government and political level has further dented our financial credibility before the foreign investors.
3 Next is since 2014 there has been concious effort by the central govt. for datas manipulation and distortion of all crucial sectors like revenue collection, job generation, inflation rate, NPA in banking sector, RBI depleting reserve, spiralling national debt againts GDP and households debt etc with avowed persistence to keep the economic picture rosy whose grave adverse impact could have gone to the extent of naional insolvency to the famine as happened in MOA’S CHINA and STALIN’ USSR.
4 Next crucial issue is percolation of national wealth and prosperity to the pockets of 5% as such big industrialial houses, stock marketers, traders, government servants and politicians and unprecedented income equalities being coupled with highest of GST and ors taxes on common people both by central and states. As a result great three great things are achived as depletion of national savings to danger level, diminishing purchasing power of common people and heap of black money oriented fast growing parallel economy.
5 Last nail in the coffin is the unfettered inflation whose marathon running with no end visible along with stagnating pvt. sector wages will force to witness us many most unbecoming unthinkable events in near future without any iota of doubt.
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