Expert Committee on Revenue Forecasting Subject: Request for suggestions

Vision 2020 and Strategic Plan 2011-15 of the Income Tax Department lays emphasis on revenue optimization efforts of the Department, for  which a scientifically developed revenue forecasting model is required to ascertain the potential tax base of the country. To develop a customized revenue forecasting model for the Direct Taxes, an Expert Committee has been constituted. OM dated 25-03-2011 has been issued on the subject.

To make it a meaningful exercise, CBDT solicits suggestions from the Officers/Staff of the Department. Officers/Staff acquainted with the subject are requested to give their suggestions on the following aspects:

Best Practices across Revenue Administrations

  • Objectives of Revenue Forecasting model
  • Appropriate Time frame for making projections: annual to be aligned with budget exercise, 3 yearly or 5 yearly to be aligned with the national 5-year plan
  • Data requirements for the models and Data sources
  • Importance of capturing regional variations and impact of discretionary changes in policy
  • Information about resource persons both within and outside the Department
  • Any other relevant issues

Suggestions are to be sent to [email protected]

DIT (O&MS), CBDT

______________________________________

F. No. 48/1/2009/Km/DOM5

Directorate of Income Tax (O&M5)

OFFICE MEMORANDUM

Dated: 25-03-2011

Vision 2020 and Strategic Plan 2011-15 of the Income Tax Department has been approved by the Finance Minister. It lays emphasis on revenue optimization efforts of the Department, for which a scientifically developed revenue forecasting model is required to ascertain the potential tax base of the country. Therefore, it has been decided by the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) to develop a customized revenue forecasting model for the Direct Taxes for which an Expert Committee on Revenue Forecasting (ECRF) is constituted with the following Members:

a)     Dr. Kaushik Basu, Chief Economic Adviser, Ministry of Finance Chairperson;

b)     Dr. Pronab yen, Principal Adviser, Planning Commission;

c)     Dr. N.R. Bhanumurthy, Professor, NIPFP;

d)     Mr. Ashutosh Dixit, J5 (TPL – I), CBDT;

e)     Mr. Sanjay Kumar, DIT (International Tax), Kolkata;

f)      Mr. D.K. Gupta, Director (Inv-I), CBDT; and

g) Mr. Nilimesh Baruch, DIT (a&M5) – Member Secretary.

2. The terms of reference of the ECRF would be as follows:

i. To identify and prepare a roadmap for setting up revenue forecasting models;

ii. To suggest a methodology for setting up models which should be robust, broad based and verifiable in the short-term as well as in the long-term;

iii.To suggest various discretionary change models to understand the possible tax impact of various tax policy changes;

iv. To identify data requirements for the model(s) and also to identify the source of such data;

v. To make recommendations, within an appropriate time-frame, on various issues relating to setting up of the model;

vi.  To recommend an appropriate regulatory mechanism for safeguarding the data as the data used would be sensitive and valuable;

vii. To suggest an administrative arrangement within the Department to operationalize the recommended forecasting model(s); and

    viii.             Any other term (s) which the Committee may consider necessary

    3. The ECRF may consult professional bodies, individuals, academicians and serving or retired members of the Indian Revenue Service (IRS) during the process of deliberation. It can also co-opt other members to bring in special expertise.

      4. The Directorate of Organization and Management Services (DOMS), CBDT will serve as the secretariat of the ECRF and the Director of Income Tax (O&MS) will be its permanent Member Secretary.

      5.   The expert committee shall submit the report by 30th June, 2011.

      This issues with the approval of Chairman, CBDT

      5d/-

      Nilimesh Baruch

      DIT (DOMS)

      Copy to:

      1. PS to FM
      2. PPS to Adviser to FM
      3. PS to Secretary (Revenue)
      4. PS to Chairman (Direct Taxes)
      5. PS to Member (L & C)
      6. PS to All Members of CBDT
      7. Expert Committee Members.
      8. Data Base Cell (Systems).

      Sd/- Nilimesh Baruch

      DIT (DOMS)

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