In the present Middle East, the world is rattled with a sudden spurt of deadly war, mainly between the USA and Israel on one side versus Iran on the other, with passive backing from most Gulf states to the USA-led alliance against Iran. Media outlets across the world are replete with misgivings about the probable beginning of a third world war, accompanied by speculation that China and Russia have been providing passive backing to Iran for a long time. These two superpowers are considered nearly capable of challenging the military hegemony of the USA, which has continued for nearly 70 years across the world.
The most noteworthy historical fact post–World War II is that, out of the wars and military skirmishes witnessed by the world until now, nearly 60% of the battles and skirmishes have been concentrated in the Middle East. Although the endless rivalries between Israel and its neighboring states, along with various terrorist organizations since the independence of Israel in the 1940s, have consistently hogged the limelight in global geopolitics—especially concerning the Palestinian cause—the actual intense battles witnessed by the world after the Second World War have largely been concentrated in the Gulf nations.
The immediate question is why. The simple and apparent answer is oil. However, delving deeper into this issue is indispensable for properly understanding the trajectory of geopolitics as well as the world economy. Control over economic resources has not only been the central cause of the majority of wars over the last 500 years but has also acted as the solitary navigational element shaping the continuous evolution and fate of the world’s geopolitical landscape.
A bird’s-eye view of world history clearly shows that the initial major battles around 500 years ago were initiated by Western nations to colonize the Eastern world. The principal motive was to snatch trading monopolies from Arabian traders dealing in precious goods such as jewelry, stones, silk, and spices. This phase continued until the 18th century.
After the First Industrial Revolution in the West, particularly in England, the next set of battles aimed at achieving complete supremacy in the trading and manufacturing of industrial goods within colonized nations and across continents. This industrial and imperial competition ultimately culminated in the Second World War.
The next real battle began toward the end of the 1970s, following the great discovery of oil in the Gulf during the late 1960s. Western nations, led by the United States—substituting the United Kingdom as the dominant power—sought to colonize or exert decisive control over Gulf nations through technological and military might. Interestingly, one of the first intense conflicts of this phase occurred between Iraq and Iran, wherein Iraq’s rulers acted as a proxy aligned with US financial interests, with full backing from the USA. The sole motive was perceived to be the dethroning of the Khomeini regime in Iran, which was viewed as a major obstacle to US ambitions to monopolize Iran’s vast oil reserves. As history appears to repeat itself, from this factual and political perspective, the USA has now launched a direct attack on Iran along with its long-standing ally Israel.
The moot issue now is why the USA, despite attempting to achieve this avowed goal since the beginning of the 1980s through proxy nations like Iraq or Israel, has chosen to launch a direct attack with such intensity. The simple and direct answer, as argued in this line of reasoning, lies in the burgeoning debts of the USA and the wider world. The current US national debt officially stands at approximately $39 trillion, excluding substantial unaccounted domestic household and corporate debts, which show no signs of subsiding despite what are described as desperate and ironical attempts to unsettle the self-created global free trade system by imposing prohibitive tariff rates on major exporting nations, including India.
President Trump’s attempt to address these economic pressures through tariffs has been likened to pouring a tub of water upon debts and inflation with Vesuvius-like ferocity. The broader global economic condition reflects a similar strain, with a world GDP of approximately $107 trillion vis-à-vis national debts amounting to nearly 350% of gross global GDP, excluding unaccounted household and corporate debts. This condition is viewed as having reached a bursting point, a reality that, according to this perspective, is discernible from recent upheavals in stock markets and high fluctuations in currencies.
From this standpoint, the USA, described as the principal architect of the modern global economy, is seen as recognizing that the present global and domestic financial anarchy is a logical outcome of the major gamble initiated in the 1970s when the gold valuation method was renounced in favor of a dollar-based valuation system. Critics argue that this transition was driven by self-serving motives and laid the foundation for mounting global debt. World leaders, both then and now, are considered aware of the potential bursting of the global economy under the weight of what is metaphorically described as “Pacific debts.”
In line with what is described as a traditionally short-sighted economic policy, the USA is perceived as attempting to enhance its global monopoly over oil by incorporating the massive reserves of Venezuela and Iran into its sphere of influence. However, just as tariff wars have faced limitations, this effort too is predicted to encounter constraints. According to this reasoning, the current global debt spiral of vast proportions can only be restrained through a gradual shift back to the age-old system of gold valuation against currencies. Yet such a shift is viewed as improbable, as the present world economy is seen as being driven not by prudent economic stewardship but by profit-driven capital interests.
Under this interpretation, continued attempts to monopolize oil, exports, and technology through short-sighted wars and expansive monetary policies are likely to persist. Printing more currency to stimulate a sagging global economy is likened to pouring more oil into the mouth of Vesuvius-like debts, potentially intensifying the very crisis it seeks to resolve.
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